CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2020-01-06T00:01:00-CME-001)

ELEvoHI ensemble prediction is based on STEREO-A HI beacon data. Measurement are given below, first column is hours from 2020-01-06T00:00, second column is elongation.

8.701195219123505 5.342842914058053
12.908366533864537 7.2528220451527226
15.107569721115539 8.207930184025802
16.924302788844628 8.686373553405428
18.93227091633466 9.34362549800797
36.525896414342625 18.055919180421174
38.91633466135458 19.42793113261241
40.73306772908367 20.56113640675394
42.93227091633466 21.873387402769875

Parameter range for ensemble simulation:
angular half width (within ecliptic plane): 30 - 50°
direction of motion (from fixed-phi fitting): 23 - 43° (relative to STEREO-A)
inverse ellipse aspect ratio: 0.7 - 1 (1 means circular frontal shape)

From the HI measurements and within the given ranges of the CME frontal shape parameters ELEvoHI produces 220 runs, of which 64 predict an Earth arrival (~30%).

FLANK ENCOUNTER!

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